Independent e-commerce in Russia may grow more than 2.5 times by 2030

Experts from Yakov & Partners shared their findings of a new study, “Development of e-commerce in Russia.” 

The e-commerce market in Russia is showing steady growth today. It increased 7.5 times over the past 5 years: from 1.7 trn rubles in 2019 to 12.6 trn rubles in 2024 

The authors of the study concluded that, under the best-case scenario, the volume of independent e-commerce (online sales through proprietary channels, including omnichannel retailers, D2C brands and niche marketplaces) could grow more than 2.5 times to reach 12 trn rubles by 2030, its market share would increase to 35%, and the Russian e-commerce market as a whole could grow to a record 35 trillion rubles by that time. 

The authors of the study identify 3 scenarios for the market development by 2030. 

• Basic. With this dynamics, the volume of e-commerce will increase 2.6 times to 32 trillion rubles, while the share of independent online stores will decrease to 28%, giving way to marketplaces. 

• “American”. This forecast is based on the US development model. In this case, the market will also grow by 2.6 times, but the share of independent e-commerce will remain at 35% due to the development of D2C sales and omnichannel strategies. 

• Optimistic. This forecast assumes even more dynamic growth: by 2.8 times to 35.2 trillion rubles. In this case, independent players will be able to retain 35% of the market due to the redistribution of demand from the offline segment.

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